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RedTube Predicts Oscar Winners

Hollywood’s biggest night is almost upon us. This Sunday, February 26, the Dolby Theater will fill up with some of the industry’s biggest names. The host, none other than late night talk-show star Jimmy Kimmel. The nominees? Well there are plenty! La La Land leads with the most nominations of the year with 14, the last movie to get this many nods was Titanic in 1997. The coming-of-age tale Moonlight, and sci-fi thriller Arrival are tough contenders, each with 8 nods of their own.    After polling more than 100,000 RedTube viewers from all over the world about who they thought would take home awards in the end, clear winners were established for some of the most anticipated awards of the evening. We’ve already correctly predicted two other major events, let’s take a closer look at the results from our most recent survey and see if we can do it again.  

Although it’s usually the last award of the night, we thought we would start with the award for Best Picture. By a landslide, La La Land is the film most likely to walk away with an Oscar for this award. Hacksaw Ridge came a very far second with 12% of the votes and was followed by Arrival and Hidden Figures, both with 10% each. Manchester by the Sea (6%), Lion (5%), Moonlight (4%), Fences (3%) and Hell or High Water (2%) rounded out the category with only a handful of RedTube users predicting a big win for these titles.  

If RedTube viewers are correct, Ryan Gosling and Emma Stone should bring home another two awards for the film. Gosling for Leading Actor, up against Denzel Washington for his role in Fences; Andrew Garfield from Hacksaw Ridge; Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea and Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic. While Stone, up for Lead Actress should beat out Nathalie Portman who portayed Jackie O Kennedy in Jackie; Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins; Isabelle Huppert in Elle and Ruth Negga from the film Loving, according to our poll.   


Unlike 2016, there was a noted improvement with respect to lack of diversity in the list of nominations this year. In the Supporting Actor category, RT viewers are torn between Jeff Bridges and Dev Patel for their supporting roles in (respectively) Hell or High Water and Lion. Moonlight‘s Mahershala Ali was close behind with 21% of the votes, followed by Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea (17%) and Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (13%). As for Supporting Actress, Viola Davis is predicted to win for her role in Fences. Octavia Spencer (Hidden Figures) and Nicole Kidman (Lion) are close second, each with 20% of the votes. 

If our viewers predict correctly (as they have with the US election and Grammy Awards), La La Land should also take home an award for Best Directing. Damien Chazelle was a step ahead of the pack with 51% of the votes in this category. Mel Gibson’s Hacksaw Ridge received 21% of the votes; Denis Villeneuve’s Arrival, 10%; Manchester by the Sea received 10% for their directing, by Kenneth Lonergan and Barry Jenkins walked away with 8% of the votes for his film Moonlight.   

The last two categories we polled viewers on were Best Writing – Original Screenplay and Best Writing Adapted Screenplay. Both received very different results. First up, Best Writing – Original Screenplay. Although the title might not scream original to some, La La Land is predicted to win the Oscar for Best Original Screenplay with 49% of the votes. Manchester by the Sea and 20th Century Women were tied up with 16%, while Hell or High Water received 12% and The Lobster received a mere 7%. 

Finally, Best Adapted Screenplay. Our viewers have their money on Allison Schroeder and Theodore Melfi’s film, Hidden Figures. Moonlight directed by Barry Jenkins and written by Tarell Alvin McCraney received 20% of viewer votes. While Arrival by Eric Heisserer, Lion originally written by Luke Davies and Fences written by August Wilson round out the category.   

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